数据增强设计下的北京行政副中心评估
Assessment of Beijing Sub-center Based on Data Augment Design
周 垠
成都市规划设计研究院 工程师，硕士
摘要: 通州定位为北京市行政副中心①。北京将通州打造成能独立、宜居宜业的新城，以期降低中心城区人口密度，改变北京单中心蔓延的发展模式，优化空间布局，北京行政副中心能否按照预期生长，还需客观分析与科学验证。基于数据增强设计（DAD）的方法，将城市视为生命体，探求“城市生长基因”，对北京未来城市形态和城市活力展开定量分析与预测。首先，以成都市行政中心搬迁为研究案例，分析行政中心迁移之后，成都市南部新区土地城镇化进程、城市活力变化，为北京行政副中心提供借鉴。基于北京城市发展模型（BUDEM），模拟2020年不同发展模式和增长速度的9种情景下的北京城市形态。研究表明：（1）随着城市行政中心的迁移，土地城镇化明显，而充满活力、宜居宜业的新城建设是一个更为漫长的过程；（2）若北京行政副中心持续快速发展，可能突破第一、二绿化隔离带，与北京中心城区连片；（3）若北京行政副中心的影响与现有新城相同，北京依然呈单中心向外蔓延的发展趋势，城市形态与顺势发展并无太多差异。
Abstract: Tongzhou has been regarded as the sub-center of Beijing for alleviating the population pressure and optimizing the spatial structure of the central city. Whether the planned Tongzhou sub-center can achieve this target deserves more scientific evaluation. This paper will borrow the development experience of Chengdu, which also proposed the sub-center strategy several years ago, for assessing the future of Beijing, using Data Augmented Design approaches. Both urban growth analysis, simulation and urban function, vibrancy evaluation of Chengdu and Beijing have been conducted. Our findings suggest that: (1) it may take a long time for developing a vibrant new city; (2) the first and second green belts
of Beijing may be encroached with the connection of the central city and the planned sub-center areas; (3) Beijing will continue to experience urban sprawl surrounding the central city conditioned that the planned sub-center has the same impact on urban growth with that of existing new cities of Beijing.
关键词：数据增强设计、城市增长、城市形态、城市活力、行政副中心
Keyword: Data Augmented Design，Urban growth ，Urban form ，Urban vitality，Sub-center
中图分类号：中图分类号TU981
文献标识码: 文献标识码A
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