农村电商时空演变特征与影响因素研究* ——以山东省淘宝村为例
Research on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Rural E-commerce: A Case Study of Taobao Villages in Shandong Province
曹俊杰
山东理工大学经济学院 教授，博士生导师
张 耀（通信作者）
山东理工大学经济学院 硕士研究生
摘要: 淘宝村作为电子商务与传统专业村相结合的产物，在提高农村地区的经济发展水平、推动农村地区的产业结构转型等方面具有重要意义。以2017—2019年山东省淘宝村数据为基础，运用空间计量方法，对淘宝村的时空演变特征进行研究。研究发现，山东省淘宝村发展既遵循经济社会发展的一般规律，也存在其自身成长的特殊规律。山东省淘宝村呈集聚性分布，其时空演化过程可分为增速不同的3个阶段，呈西密东疏的空间分布特征，并具有沿西南向东北方向扩散的趋势，在县域尺度下其空间分布具有显著的正自相关特征，且空间关联性正逐年提高。构建GWR模型，剖析山东省淘宝村发展的影响因素，认为政府政策、人口数量、交通通信消费支出和农村居民可支配收入对淘宝村的发展有正向的促进作用，而经济发展水平、城镇化率有负向的抑制作用。
Abstract: As a result of the combination of e-commerce and traditional industrial villages, the Taobao Village is of great significance in improving the level of economic development and promoting the transformation of industrial structures in rural areas. Based on the data of Taobao Villages in Shandong Province from 2017 to 2019, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of Taobao Villages are studied using spatial measurement methods. The study finds out that the development of Taobao Villages in Shandong Province not only follows the general law of economic and social development, but also follows a special rule of growth. Taobao Villages in Shandong Province are distributed in agglomeration, and their spatio-temporal evolution process can be divided into three stages with different growth rates. In terms of spatial distribution, the Taobao Villages are dense in the west and sparse in the east, and have a trend of spreading from the southwest to the northeast. The spatial distribution has significant positive autocorrelation characteristics, and is increasing year by year. This paper constructs a GWR model and analyzes the factors affecting the development of Taobao Villages in Shandong Province. It is believed that government policies, population size, transportation and communication consumption expenditures, and disposable income of rural residents have a positive effect on the development of Taobao Villages, while economic development level and urbanization rate have a negative effect.
关键词：淘宝村；时空演变；GWR模型；影响因素；山东省
Keyword: Taobao Village; temporal and spatial evolution; GWR model; influencing factors; Shandong Province
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
国家社会科学基金一般项目 “乡村振兴战略背景下农业经营模式创新及实施路径研究” 19BJL032
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