基于成本—效益分析的海平面上升背景下基础设施适应性规划策略——以美国佛罗里达为例
Assessing Adaptation Planning Strategies of Interconnected Infrastructure under Sea-level Rise by Cost-benefit Analysis: A Case Study of Florida
翟 炜
美国德克萨斯大学圣安东尼奥分校 助理教授，博士生导师
黄文亮
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
摘要: 基于成本—效益分析，评估海平面上升背景下佛罗里达州西北部的基础设施适应性规划策略。通过分析基础设施之间的相互依赖性来考虑海平面上升对该区域的直接和间接影响。从研究结果来看，虽然全面的海岸线保护能够带来更多的效益，但最有效的策略还是保护部分土地使其免受海水淹没，同时升级可能被淹没的交通网络。基于总效益和成本效益两个标准对目标规划年份的适应性规划策略进行对比分析，结果表明：将2080年定为长期基础设施规划的目标年份将是最为经济有效的。由于总成本会分摊到多个年份，基础设施的经济效益会随着时间的推移越来越大，但这并不表明规划目标年限越长，适应性规划策略就越经济有效。
Abstract: This study assesses the adaptation planning strategies of infrastructures for the Northwest Florida region in the context of sea-level rise based on cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, this paper considers both direct and indirect impacts of sea-level rise on the region by deploying the interdependence of infrastructure. Based on the results, we recommend that the most effective strategy is partial protection of land use plus inundated transportation network upgrade, even though the total shoreline protection can make more benefits. Furthermore, we compare the adaptive planning strategies of the objective planning year from two criteria: total benefits and cost-benefit. The result indicates that the year 2080 would be the most economical if it is set as the objective year of the long-term infrastructure planning. The result also highlights that the economic benefits of infrastructure should be greater over time since the total costs are distributed over many years. It is not to say that the farther the year is, the more effective the strategy would be.
关键词：海平面上升；适应性规划；成本—效益分析；规划策略
Keyword: sea level rise; adaptation planning; cost-benefit analysis; planning strategies
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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