上海市租赁住房供需测算与政策启示 ——基于行政区职住平衡视角
Rental Housing Supply and Demand in Shanghai: A Quantitative Assessment and Policy Implications Based on the Perspective of Job-Housing Balance at the Administrative District Level
魏小群
上海市房地产科学研究院 经济师，硕士，2221871076@qq.com
摘要: 新时期大力发展租赁住房是解决大城市新市民、新青年住房困难问题的重要举措。上海市外来人口数量庞大，租赁需 求旺盛，近年来通过不断培育和完善住房租赁体系，租赁市场发展已具有良好基础，租赁住房成为外来人口解决住房 需求的重要途径。为了解上海市住房租赁市场供需特征与矛盾，为编制本市住房发展“十五五”规划提供参考，基于 职住平衡理念，运用数理统计分析方法，对上海各行政区租赁住房供需现状进行测算。结果显示，上海市租赁住房供需 总量基本实现平衡，但仍存在结构不匹配问题，职住不平衡现象较为普遍。在此基础上，提出推动住房租赁市场健康发 展、促进职住平衡的政策思路。
Abstract: Developing rental housing in the new period represents a crucial measure to address housing difficulties among new citizens and young people in major cities. Shanghai, characterized by its substantial migrant population and robust rental demand, has established a solid foundation for its rental market through continuous cultivation and refinement of the housing leasing system. Consequently, rental housing has become a vital pathway for the migrant population to meet their housing needs. To investigate the supply-demand characteristics and contradictions within Shanghai's rental housing market and provide a reference for formulating the city's "15th Five-Year Plan" for housing development, this study employs quantitative statistical analysis methods based on the job-housing balance concept to assess the current state of rental housing supply and demand across its administrative districts. The results indicate that Shanghai has achieved a basic balance in the total volume of rental housing supply and demand. However, structural mismatches persist, and job-housing imbalance is a widespread phenomenon. Building on these findings, the paper proposes policy insights aimed at fostering the healthy development of the rental housing market and promoting job-housing balance.
关键词：职住平衡；租赁住房；供需测算；政策启示
Keyword: job-housing balance; rental housing; supply-demand measurement; policy implications
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
张天然，王波，訾海波，等. 上海五个新城职住空
间特征对比研究[J]. 上海城市规划，2021（4）：
44-52.
ZHANG Tianran, WANG Bo, ZI Haibo, et al. A
comparative study on the spatial characteristics
of job-housing in five new towns in Shanghai[J].
Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2021(4): 44-52.
岳丽莹，李开明，吴瑞君. 上海市不同学历群体
过剩通勤空间分异及影响因素[J]. 地理科学，
2023，43（8）：1382-1391.
YUE Liying, LI Kaiming, WU Ruijun. Intraurban
variations and determinants of excess commuting for
different educational groups in Shanghai[J]. Scientia
Geographica Sinica, 2023, 43(8): 1382-1391.
陈小韦，李敏，王聃. 基于大数据分析的职住平
衡路径探索[J]. 城乡建设，2020（20）：42-43.
CHEN Xiaowei, LI Min, WANG Dan. Exploring
pathways to jobs-housing balance using big data
analytics[J]. Urban and Rural Development,
2020(20): 42-43.
郑思齐，徐杨菲，张晓楠，等. “职住平衡指数”
的构建与空间差异性研究：以北京市为例[J]. 清
华大学学报（自然科学版），2015，55（4）：
475-483.
ZHENG Siqi, XU Yangfei, ZHANG Xiaonan, et
al. Jobs-housing balance index and its spatial variation: a case study in Beijing[J]. Journal of Tsinghua
University (Science and Technology), 2015, 55(4):
475-483.
英成龙，雷军，段祖亮，等. 乌鲁木齐市职住空间
组织特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展，2016，
35（4）：462-475.
YING Chenglong, LEI Jun, DUAN Zuliang, et al.
Characteristics of jobs-housing spatial organization in Urumqi City and influencing factors[J].
Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(4): 462-475.
陈芯洁，徐苗. 我国大城市工人村社区职住空间
特征及其影响要素研究——以重庆市主城区为
例[J]. 上海城市规划，2025（1）：95-104.
CHEN Xinjie, XU Miao. Research on the characteristics and influencing factors of occupation and
living space in workers' villages in big cities of
China: a case study of Chongqing[J]. Shanghai
Urban Planning Review, 2025(1): 95-104.
林诗佳，钮心毅. “人口—产业”匹配视角下大
城市空间结构演化特征与优化策略——以上海
市为例[J]. 上海城市规划，2024（3）：86-93.
LIN Shijia, NIU Xinyi. Evolution characteristics
and optimization strategies of urban spatial structure
in megacities from the perspective of populationindustry matching: a case study of Shanghai[J].
Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2024(3): 86-93.
周新刚，孙晨晨，钮心毅. 基于手机大数据的职住
关系空间尺度问题探讨——以上海市和深圳市
为例[J]. 国际城市规划，2021，36（5）：78-85.
ZHOU Xin'gang, SUN Chenchen, NIU Xinyi.
Spatial scale problem of jobs-housing relationship
based on cellphone data: case studies of Shanghai
and Shenzhen[J]. Urban Planning International,
2021, 36(5): 78-85.
张天然，周江评，周明芷. 超大城市就业-居住格
局与通勤绩效研究——以上海市为例[J]. 城市
交通，2020，18（5）：18-26.
ZHANG Tianran, ZHOU Jiangping, ZHOU
Mingzhi. Job-housing spatial distribution and
commuting efficiency in megacities: a case study
on Shanghai[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2020,
18(5): 18-26.
仝德，高静，龚咏喜. 城中村对深圳市职住空间
融合的影响——基于手机信令数据的研究[J].
北京大学学报（自然科学版），2020，56（6）：
1091-1101.
TONG De, GAO Jing, GONG Yongxi. Impact of
urban village on job-housing balance in Shenzhen:
a study using mobile phone signaling data[J]. Acta
Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,
2020, 56(6): 1091-1101.
吴欣玥，廖家仪，张晓荣. 基于多源数据融合的
成都市职住空间特征及影响因素研究[J]. 规划
师，2023，39（1）：120-127.
WU Xinyue, LIAO Jiayi, ZHANG Xiaorong.
Employment-residence space characters and their
influencing factors based on multi-sourced data
integration, Chengdu[J]. Planners, 2023, 39(1):
120-127.
张晓荣，周垠，张娜，等. 基于多源数据和机器学
习的人口空间化研究——以成都市为例[J]. 地
域研究与开发，2024，43（5）：173-180.
ZHANG Xiaorong, ZHOU Yin, ZHANG Na, et al.
Population spatialization based on multisource data
and machine learning: a case study of Chengdu
City[J]. Areal Research and Development, 2024,
43(5): 173-180.
王德，申卓. 职住变迁与通勤自平衡[J]. 同济大学
学报（自然科学版），2022，50（12）：1778-1787.
WANG De, SHEN Zhuo. Change of residence and
workplace and commuting self-balance[J]. Journal
of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2022,
50(12): 1778-1787.
肖伟烨，陈雯. 上海职住关系与城市通勤问题空
间治理策略[J]. 国际大都市发展研究（中英文），
2024（2）：73-82.
XIAO Weiye, CHEN Wen. Jobs-housing relationship in Shanghai and spatial governance policies
for urban commuting related problems[J]. Journal
of Metropolitan Development Research (Chinese
and English), 2024(2): 73-82.
李强，张敏清，梁英竹. 伦敦保障性租赁住房发
展特征研究及对上海的思考[J]. 上海城市规划，
2023（2）：81-86.
LI Qiang, ZHANG Minqing, LIANG Yingzhu.
Research on the development characteristics of
affordable rental housing in London and reflection
on Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Urban Planning Review,
2023(2): 81-86.
崔鹤，赵培松，梁弘，等. 基于时空大数据的海淀
区职住平衡现状研究[J]. 北京规划建设，2023
（1）：54-59.
CUI He, ZHAO Peisong, LIANG Hong, et al.
Current status research on jobs-housing balance
in Haidian District based on spatiotemporal big
data[J]. Beijing Planning Review, 2023(1): 54-59.
张文兵，王凯，李茜，等. 落脚城市：面向新就业
青年的保障性租赁住房供给研究[J]. 价格理论
与实践，2023（10）：32-37.
ZHANG Wenbing, WANG Kai, LI Qian, et al.
Arrival city: a study of affordable rental housing
supply for newly employed young people[J]. Price
Theory & Practice, 2023(10): 32-37.
魏小群，吴佳. 上海市青年科创人才住房需求特
征分析及政策启示[J]. 上海经济，2025（1）：
84-100.
WEI Xiaoqun, WU Jia. Analysis of housing demand
characteristics of young scientific and technological innovation talents in Shanghai and policy
implications[J]. Shanghai Economy, 2025(1): 84-
100.
李冰洋，罗小龙，冉星星. 基于手机信令大数据
的深圳市职住平衡研究[J]. 城市建设理论研究
（电子版），2022（32）：7-9.
LI Bingyang, LUO Xiaolong, RAN Xingxing.
Research on jobs-housing balance in Shenzhen
City based on mobile phone signaling big data[J].
Theoretical Research in Urban Construction,
2022(32): 7-9.
潘兰平，宋小冬，钮心毅. 大数据支持下的超大
城市职住平衡研究[J]. 上海国土资源，2018，
39（3）：83-86.
PAN Lanping, SONG Xiaodong, NIU Xinyi.
Jobs-housing balance in a megacity based on big
data[J]. Shanghai Land & Resources, 2018, 39(3):
83-86.
