超大城市高温热浪脆弱性评价及应对策略 ——以上海市为例

Vulnerability Assessment and Response Strategies for High-Temperature Waves in Megacities: A Case Study of Shanghai

陈 星
上海市城市规划设计研究院 高级工程师,硕士

姜紫莹
上海市城市规划设计研究院 工程师,硕士

方 澜(通信作者)
上海市城市规划设计研究院 发展研究中心主任 高级工程师,硕士,13215948@qq.com

摘要: 近年来全球气候变化给城市带来巨大挑战,高温热浪灾害研究逐渐受到学者们的关注。基于多源数据进行高温热浪脆 弱性评估,对城市缓解与适应高温热浪危机,构建健康、宜居、可持续的城市具有重要意义。以上海市为例,构建超大城 市高温热浪脆弱性评价体系,根据暴露度、敏感性、适应能力等进行研究。结果显示,高脆弱性区域主要集中于中心城, 并且由内向外脆弱性相对减弱,中郊与远郊①有零星散布的脆弱性较高的区域,反映了高温热浪在空间上具有广泛影 响。运用K-均值聚类将市域空间分为6类高温特征空间,并提出引导方向。最后结合国际城市应对高温热浪的措施,从总 体行动、分区管控、专项策略等方面提出应对措施。

Abstract: In recent years, global climate change has brought enormous challenges to cities, and research on heatwave disasters has attracted increasing attention from scholars. Based on multi-source data, conducting vulnerability assessments of hightemperature heat waves is of great significance for cities to alleviate and adapt to the crisis of high-temperature heat waves, and to build healthy, livable, and sustainable cities. This article takes Shanghai as an example to construct a vulnerability assessment system for high-temperature heat waves in megacities, and conducts research based on the exposure level, sensitivity, and adaptability of disaster-causing factors. The results show that high vulnerability areas are mainly concentrated in the central city, with the degree of vulnerability relatively decreasing from the inner to outer regions. There are scattered areas with higher vulnerability in the middle and far suburbs, reflecting the widespread spatial impact of high-temperature heat waves. This paper uses K-means clustering to divide the urban space into six categories of high-temperature feature spaces, and proposes guiding directions. In addition, in combination with the measures taken by international cities to cope with heatwaves, response measures are proposed from the aspects of overall action, zoning control, and special strategies.

关键词:高温热浪;超大城市;脆弱性评价;应对策略

Keyword: heatwaves; megacities; vulnerability assessment; response strategies

中图分类号:TU984

文献标识码: A

WEI D, YANG L, BAO Z, et al. Variations in 
outdoor thermal comfort in an urban park in the 
hot-summer and cold-winter region of China[J]. 
Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 77: 103535.
HARMAY N S M, CHOI M. Effects of heat 
waves on urban warming across different urban 
morphologies and climate zones[J]. Building and 
Environment, 2022, 209: 108677.
LISS A, NAUMOVA E N. Heatwaves and hospitalizations due to hyperthermia in defined climate 
regions in the conterminous USA[J]. Environmental
Monitoring and Assessment, 2019, 191(s2): 394. 
KERAMITSOGLOU I, KIRANOUDIS C T, 
MAIHEU B, et al. Heat wave hazard classification 
and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy 
logic[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2013, 185: 8239-8258.
黄晓军,王博,刘萌萌,等. 中国城市高温特征及
社会脆弱性评价[J]. 地理研究,2020(7):1534-
1547.
HUANG Xiaojun, WANG Bo, LIU Mengmeng, 
et al. Characteristics of urban extreme heat and 
assessment of social vulnerability in China[J]. 
Geographical Research, 2020(7): 1534-1547.
江斯达,占文凤,杨俊,等. 局地气候分区框架下
城市热岛时空分异特征研究进展[J]. 地理学报,
2020(9):1860-1878.
JIANG Sida, ZHAN Wenfeng, YANG Jun, et al. 
Urban heat island studies based on local climate 
zones: a systematic overview[J]. Acta Geographica 
Sinica, 2020(9): 1860-1878.
谢盼,王仰麟,彭建,等. 基于居民健康的城市高
温热浪灾害脆弱性评价——研究进展与框架[J]. 
地理科学进展,2015,34(2):165-174.
XIE Pan, WANG Yanglin, PENG Jian, et al. 
Health related urban heat wave vulnerability 
assessment: research progress and framework[J]. 
Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(2): 165-174.
何宝杰,尹名强. 应对城市高温的国际总体行动、
策略与指南[J]. 国际城市规划,2024,39(3):
98-108.
HE Baojie, YIN Mingqiang. Global actions, 
strategies and guidelines for beating urban heat[J]. 
Urban Planning International, 2024, 39(3): 98-108.
冷红,李泓锐,袁青. 气候变化背景下空间健康
风险的评估方法及韧性规划应对[J]. 上海城市
规划,2022(6):16-23.
LENG Hong, LI Hongrui, YUAN Qing. Assessment 
methods and resilience planning response for spatial 
health risks in the context of climate change[J]. 
Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2022(6): 16-23.
杨林川,杨皓森,范强雪,等. 大城市高温热浪脆
弱性评价及规划应对研究——以成都市为例[J]. 
规划师,2023,39(2):38-45.
YANG Linchuan, YANG Haosen, FAN Qiangxue, et 
al. Vulnerability assessment and planning response 
to high-temperature wave in large cities: the case of 
Chengdu[J]. Planners, 2023, 39(2): 38-45.
郑颖生,王墨,李建军,等. 城市高温风险评估与
气候适应性规划策略——以亚热带高密度城市
深圳为例[J]. 规划师,2021,37(14):13-19.
ZHENG Yingsheng, WANG Mo, LI Jianjun, et al. 
Risk assessment of high temperature and adaptive 
planning strategies: Shenzhen example[J]. 
Planners, 2021, 37(14): 13-19.
石晓冬,黄晓春,高雅,等. 超大城市气候适应性
规划技术体系及应用——以北京为例[J]. 城市
学报,2023(5):105-113.
SHI Xiaodong, HUANG Xiaochun, GAO Ya, et 
al. Technical system and application of climate 
adaptation planning for megacities: taking Beijing 
as an example[J]. Journal of Urban Sciences, 
2023(5): 105-113.
IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and 
disasters to advance climate change adaptation: 
a special report of working groups I and II of the 
intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. 
New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
黄晓军,祁明月,赵凯旭,等. 高温影响下西安市
人口脆弱性评估及其空间分异[J]. 地理研究,
2021(6):1684-1700.
HUANG Xiaojun, QI Mingyue, ZHAO Kaixu, 
et al. Assessment of population vulnerability to 
heat stress and spatial differentiation in Xi'an[J]. 
Geographical Research, 2021(6): 1684-1700.
张蔚,甄峰,陈文婷,等. “活动—环境”交互视
角下南京城市街道空间热风险评估研究[J]. 地
理研究,2024,43(11):2902-2919.
ZHANG Wei, ZHEN Feng, CHEN Wenting, et al. 
Study on the assessment of heat risks in Nanjing's 
urban street spaces: an "activity-environment" 
interaction perspective[J]. Geographical Research, 
2024, 43(11): 2902-2919.
陈恺,唐燕. 城市高温热浪脆弱性空间识别与规
划策略应对——以北京中心城区为例[J]. 城市
规划,2019,43(12):37-44.
CHEN Kai, TANG Yan. Identification of urban 
areas vulnerable to heat waves and coping strategies: 
a case study of Beijing central city[J]. Planning 
Studies, 2019, 43(12): 37-44.
顾伟琦,傅红. 城市人居环境热脆弱性评估及空
间分布特征——以成都市主城区为例[J]. 西部
人居环境学刊,2023,38(6):67-74.
GU Weiqi, FU Hong. Heat vulnerability assessment 
and spatial distribution characteristics of urban 
population in Chengdu[J]. Journal of Human 
Settlements in West China, 2023, 38(6): 67-74.
金星星,祁新华,陆玉麒,等. 福建省高温热浪风
险评估与空间分异研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报,
2018,20(12):1820-1829.
JIN Xingxing, QI Xinhua, LU Yuqi, et al. Evaluation 
and spatial differentiation of heat waves risk of 
Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information 
Science, 2018, 20(12): 1820-1829.
王丹舟,张强,朱秀迪,等. 基于多源数据的上海
市高温热浪风险评估[J]. 北京师范大学学报:自
然科学版,2021,57(5):613-623.
WANG Danzhou, ZHANG Qiang, ZHU Xiudi, 
et al. Multisource data evaluation of heat risk in 
Shanghai[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University 
(Natural Science), 2021, 57(5): 613-623.
GIGUÈRE M. Literature review of urban heat 
island mitigation strategies[M]. Québec: Direction 
de la santé environnementale et de la toxicologie, 
Institut national de santé publique Québec, 2009.

微信扫一扫
关注“上海城市规划”
公众号