广州市城市更新的影响因素及多元路径识别* ——基于推拉理论的分析框架
Influencing Factors and Multi-Path Identification of Urban Renewal in Guangzhou: An Analytical Framework Based on Push-Pull Theory
黄海贤
华南农业大学公共管理学院
李景刚（通信作者）
华南农业大学公共管理学院 自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点 实验室 广东土地制度与乡村振兴研究院 副教授，硕士生导师，ljg-2002@scau.edu.cn
叶 楠
华南农业大学公共管理学院 硕士研究生
刘轶伦
华南农业大学公共管理学院 自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点 实验室 广东土地制度与乡村振兴研究院 副教授，硕士生导师
摘要: 基于推拉理论，从推力因素（人口拥挤压力、土地利用压力）、拉力因素（新质生产力、土地出让收益）和约束因素（更 新成本、政府治理能力）3个维度构建城市更新驱动机制分析框架，并运用fsQCA方法进行实证检验。研究发现：新质生 产力、土地出让收益、更新成本、政府治理能力和土地利用压力是驱动城市更新的核心条件；广州市城市更新可归纳为 新质生产力拉动型、土地出让收益拉动型、更新成本约束型和土地利用压力推动—政府治理能力约束型等4条路径。因 此，因地制宜推进城市更新，实施精准化治理策略极为必要，并要重视新质生产力发展给城市更新带来的机遇，健全资 金投入保障与激励机制，完善多元主体协同治理机制，不断提升政府治理能力。
Abstract: Based on the push-pull theory, this paper constructs an analytical framework for the driving mechanisms of urban renewal from three dimensions: pushing factors (population congestion pressure, land use pressure), pulling factors (new quality productive forces, land transfer revenue), and constraint factors (renewal cost, government governance capacity). It then conducts an empirical test using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). The study finds that new quality productive forces, land transfer revenue, renewal cost, government governance capacity, and land use pressure constitute the core conditions driving urban renewal. Urban renewal in Guangzhou can be categorized into four configurations: the new quality productive forces-driven type, the land transfer revenue-driven type, the renewal cost-constrained type, and the land use pressure-driven & government governance capacity-constrained type. Therefore, it is imperative to promote urban renewal tailored to local conditions and implement precise governance strategies. Priority should be given to seizing the opportunities brought by the development of new quality productive forces, strengthening financial investment guarantees and incentive mechanisms, improving the collaborative governance mechanisms among multiple stakeholders, and continuously enhancing government governance capacity.
关键词：城市更新；驱动机制；推拉理论；fsQCA
Keyword: urban renewal; driving mechanism; push-pull theory; fsQCA
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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