基于动态轨迹数据的城市滨水空间雨洪韧性评价 方法研究* ——以深圳市盐田区为例
Flood Resilience Evaluation Method for Urban Waterfront Spaces Based on Dynamic Trajectory Data: A Case Study of Yantian District, Shenzhen
陈心妍
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
翟国方（通信作者）
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 教授，博士生导师 guofang_zhai@nju.edu.cn
邹 滢
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
宁世强
西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院 博士研究生
摘要: 雨洪韧性评估需要综合考量社会经济、人口暴露、建成环境等多维因素。传统人口暴露评估主要依赖静态人口数据，但 这类数据难以反映实际人口活动特征，易导致评估偏差。为提升滨水空间雨洪扰动适应能力，研究提出一种结合运动 轨迹数据的滨水空间建成环境雨洪韧性评价方法。以深圳市盐田区为例，采用熵权—TOPSIS法，综合考虑雨洪吸收、适 应、恢复能力（如绿地率、路网密度等）和人口暴露性特征（静态人口密度与动态运动轨迹密度），构建雨洪韧性评价 体系，并对比分析静态—动态综合评估与单一静态评估的结果。研究发现：（1）动态轨迹数据的引入显著提高了韧性 评估的准确性；（2）单一静态评估方法会系统性高估区域韧性水平。研究成果为城市雨洪韧性评估提供了新的数据视 角和方法框架，特别强调了动态人口活动特征在提升评估精度中的关键作用。
Abstract: Urban flood resilience assessment requires the integration of multidimensional factors, including socioeconomic conditions, population exposure, and built environment characteristics. Traditional population exposure assessments primarily rely on static population data, which often fail to capture real-time human activity patterns, leading to evaluation biases. To enhance the adaptive capacity of waterfront spaces to flood disturbances, this study proposes a novel flood resilience assessment method for built environments that incorporates movement trajectory data. Taking Yantian District, Shenzhen, as a case study, we employ the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to construct a comprehensive evaluation framework, considering flood absorption, adaptation, and recovery capacities (e.g., green space ratio, road network density) as well as population exposure features (static population density and dynamic movement trajectory density). A comparative analysis is conducted between static-dynamic integrated assessments and static-only assessments. The findings reveal that: (1) the incorporation of dynamic trajectory data significantly improves the accuracy of resilience assessments; and (2) static-only assessment methods tend to systematically overestimate regional resilience levels. This research provides a new data perspective and methodological framework for urban flood resilience assessment, particularly highlighting the critical role of dynamic human activity characteristics in enhancing evaluation precision.
关键词：韧性评价；雨洪韧性；滨水空间；建成环境；运动轨迹数据
Keyword: resilience evaluation; rainstorm resilience; waterfront space; built environment; movement trajectory data
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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