基于渗流模型的上海大都市区空间范围界定研究*
Study on the Spatial Extent of the Shanghai Metropolitan Area Based on the Percolation Model
黄建中
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 教授，博导
胡刚钰（通信作者）
上海大学上海城市更新与可持续发展研究院 助理研究员，博士，hugangyu1991@shu.edu.cn
沈 尧
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 副教授，博导
陈 歌
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
王宇琛
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
张天然
上海市城市规划设计研究院 交通分院院长，正高级工程师，博士
摘要: “大都市区”作为以大城市为核心，与周边邻近地区保持密切社会经济联系的城乡一体化区域，其空间范围的科学界 定是研究其复杂社会经济联系及提升规划科学性的关键基础。研究突破传统以通勤率为单一指标的界定方法，基于渗 流模型，结合多源时空大数据，构建多要素统一分析框架，识别并解析了上海大都市区的功能空间范围。提出“分层一 体化”的动态认知框架，从基础设施、居住分布、经济强度与综合活动4个维度揭示上海与周边地区在不同功能维度上 异步融合的复杂图景；实证刻画了上海大都市区“西北强、东南弱”的不对称空间拓展特征；通过多维叠加，量化识别 出“核心区—稳固区—拓展区—动态区”的梯度圈层体系，明确了花桥、淀山湖等跨界融合核心节点以及金山区等功 能断层，形成一体化“多维诊断地图”。研究验证了渗流模型方法在多维数据协同与空间结构识别中的有效性和稳定 性，为上海大都市区的差异化空间治理与精细化的跨界协同政策制定提供直接、科学的决策依据。
Abstract: As an integrated urban-rural region centered on a major city and characterized by close socioeconomic ties with its surrounding areas, the scientific delineation of a metropolitan area’s spatial extent serves as a critical foundation for understanding its complex socioeconomic linkages and enhancing the rigor of spatial planning. Moving beyond the traditional approach that relies solely on commuting rates as a single defining metric, this study constructs a unified multi-factor analytical framework based on the percolation model and integrates multi-source spatiotemporal big data to identify and analyze the functional spatial scope of the Shanghai Metropolitan Area. The research proposes a “layered integration” dynamic conceptual framework, revealing through four dimensions—infrastructure, residential distribution, economic intensity, and comprehensive activity—the complex landscape of asynchronous functional integration between Shanghai and its neighboring regions. It empirically delineates the asymmetrical spatial expansion of the Shanghai Metropolitan Area, characterized by a “strong northwest, weak southeast” pattern. Through multi-dimensional overlay analysis, a gradient zonal system of “Core Zone, Stable Zone, Expansion Zone, and Dynamic Zone” is quantitatively identified. This clarifies key cross-border integration nodes such as Huaqiao and Dianshan Lake, as well as functional disconnects like the Jinshan District, thereby forming a “multi-dimensional diagnostic map” of regional integration. The study validates the effectiveness and robustness of the percolation model approach in coordinating multidimensional data and identifying spatial structures. Furthermore, it provides a direct and scientifically grounded basis for decision-making in differentiated spatial governance and the formulation of refined cross-border collaborative policies for the Shanghai Metropolitan Area.
关键词：大都市区；渗流模型；空间范围；多源数据；上海
Keyword: metropolitan area; percolation model; spatial extent; multi-source data; Shanghai
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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