适应气候变化的市级国土空间总体规划编制技术 研究
Technical Approaches for Compiling Climate-Adaptive City-Level Territorial Spatial Master Plans
姜紫莹
上海市城市规划设计研究院 中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室 高级工程师，硕士，298087335@qq.com
钱 昊
上海市城市规划设计研究院 上海市量子城市空间智能创新重点实验室（筹） 规划分中心 成员 高级工程师，经济师，硕士
李梦芸
上海市城市规划设计研究院 工程师，硕士
时 寅
上海市城市规划设计研究院 工程师，硕士
田田甜
上海市城市规划设计研究院 工程师，博士
摘要: 气候变化的不确定性与复杂性使得适应气候变化的空间规划编制已超出了传统空间规划的概念和方法范畴。结合国 土空间规划转型，探索建立适应气候变化的市级国土空间总体规划编制技术方法和主要内容。在规划流程上，加强气 候风险分析对规划方案的支撑，在基础工作阶段，衔接城市中长期气候变化预估和主要气候风险研判，开展国土空间 规划气候风险评估，识别主要灾害风险并分析其对城市关键基础设施的影响；在规划编制阶段，根据风险情景，模拟并 评估不同方案的风险缓解情况，优化规划方案。在规划方法上，开展气候风险评估、多情景模拟等基础方法研究，以及 通风廊道划定等专题性技术研究。在规划内容上，基于气候风险应对研究，明确规划重点领域应对策略，并进一步落实 为指标和分区管控要求，以期为建立适应气候变化的国土空间开发保护格局提供支撑。
Abstract: The uncertainty and complexity of climate change have pushed climate adaptation-oriented spatial planning beyond the scope of conventional planning concepts and methodologies. Anchored in the ongoing transition of China’s territorial spatial planning system, this study explores technical frameworks and core components for formulating municipal-level territorial spatial master plans that proactively adapt to climate change. First, regarding the planning process, the study enhances the role of climate risk analysis in supporting planning decisions. At the foundational stage, it integrates medium- to long-term climate projections and key risk assessments to conduct comprehensive climate risk evaluations of territorial space, identifying major hazards and analyzing their impacts on critical urban infrastructure. During the formulation stage, risk scenarios are employed to simulate and evaluate the mitigation efficacy of alternative planning schemes, thereby optimizing outcomes. Second, methodologically, the research advances foundational approaches—including climate risk assessment and multi-scenario simulation—and develops specialized techniques such as the delineation of urban ventilation corridors. Third, substantively, based on climate risk response strategies, the study clarifies targeted interventions across key planning domains and translates them into quantifiable indicators and zoned regulatory requirements. Collectively, these efforts provide robust support for establishing a resilient territorial development and protection spatial pattern capable of adapting to climate change.
关键词：适应气候变化；市级国土空间总体规划；气候风险；编制技术
Keyword: climate adaptation; city-level territorial spatial master plan; climate risk; formulation techniques
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
IPCC. Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation
and vulnerability[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2022.
姜允芳，Eckart Lange，石铁矛，等. 城市规划应
对气候变化的适应发展战略——英国等国的经
验[J]. 现代城市研究，2012，27（1）：13-20.
Jiang Yunfang, Lange E, Shi Tiemao, et al.
Adaptation development strategies of urban
planning to deal with climatic change: cases
studies in UK, and some other countries[J].
Modern Urban Research, 2012, 27(1): 13-20.
杨柳青，陈雯，吴加伟，等. 适应气候变化的空间
规划研究进展：内容和方法[J]. 国际城市规划，
2020，35（4）：96-100.
Yang Liuqing, Chen Wen, Wu Jiawei, et al. Spatial
planning adapting to climate change: progress in
the content and methodology[J]. Urban Planning
International, 2020, 35(4): 96-100.
蒋存妍，袁青，于婷婷. 城市应对气候变化不确
定性的动态适应性规划国际经验及启示[J]. 国
际城市规划，2021，36（5）：13-22.
Jiang Cunyan, Yuan Qing, Yu Tingting.
International experience and implications for
dynamic adaptive planning for urban response to
climate change uncertainty[J]. Urban Planning
International, 2021, 36(5): 13-22.
王凯，蒋国翔，罗彦，等. 适应气候变化的国土空
间规划应对总体思路研究[J]. 规划师，2023，
39（2）：5-10.
Wang Kai, Jiang Guoxiang, Luo Yan, et al.
Territorial space planning response to climate
change[J]. Planners, 2023, 39(2): 5-10.
蔡云楠，温钊鹏. 提升城市韧性的气候适应性规
划技术探索[J]. 规划师，2017，33（8）：18-24.
Cai Yunnan, Wen Zhaopeng. Climate adaptability
planning technology for urban resilience promotion[J]. Planners, 2017, 33(8): 18-24.
HY/T 227—2018 海平面上升影响脆弱区评估技
术指南[S].
HY/T 227—2018 Technical guide to vulnerable area
assessment of sea level rise impacts[S].
QX/T 437—2018 气候可行性论证规范 城市通
风廊道[S].
QX/T 437—2018 Specifications for climatic
feasibility demonstration—Urban ventilation
corridor[S].
石晓冬，黄晓春，高雅，等. 超大城市气候适应性
规划技术体系及应用——以北京为例[J]. 城市
学报，2023（5）：105-113.
Shi Xiaodong, Huang Xiaochun, Gao Ya, et al.
Technical system and application of climate
adaptation planning for megacities: taking Beijing
as an example[J]. Journal of Urban Affairs, 2023(5):
105-113.
颜文涛，任婕，赵筠蔚. 社区生活韧性的认知框
架与规划策略[J]. 上海城市规划，2023（1）：
33-39.
Yan Wentao, Ren Jie, Zhao Yunwei. Cognitive
framework and planning strategies for community
living resilience[J]. Shanghai Urban Planning
Review, 2023(1): 33-39.
Von Storch H, Zorita E, Cubasch U. Downscaling
of global climate change estimates to regional
scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in
wintertime[J]. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6(6):
1161-1171.
史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾
害学报，2002（3）：1-9.
SHI Peijun. Third discussion on the theory and
practice of disaster research[J]. Journal of Natural
Disasters, 2002(3): 1-9.
周姝天，翟国方，施益军，等. 城市自然灾害风险评
估研究综述[J]. 灾害学，2020，35（4）：180-186.
Zhou Shutian, Zhai Guofang, Shi Yijun, et al. A
review of urban natural disaster risk assessment
research[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2020,
35(4): 180-186.
钱昊，姜紫莹，李梦芸，等. 基于综合指标法的国
土空间总体规划气候风险评估方法研究[J]. 上
海城市规划，2026（1）：127-134.
Qian Hao, Jiang Ziying, Li Mengyun, et al.
Research on climate risk assessment method
for national territorial spatial planning based on
comprehensive index method[J]. Shanghai Urban
Planning Review, 2026(1): 127-134.
吴绍洪，潘韬，刘燕华，等. 中国综合气候变化风
险区划[J]. 地理学报，2017，72（1）：3-17.
Wu Shaohong, Pan Tao, Liu Yanhua, et al.
Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization
of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1):
3-17.
王昕宇，曾坚. 城市高温热浪灾害防灾规划策略
研究——基于欧美国家的规划经验[J]. 现代城
市研究，2017，32（8）：84-92.
Wang Xinyu, Zeng Jian. Study on city heat wave
hazard planning strategies based on European and
North American countries’ planning experience[J].
Modern Urban Research, 2017, 32(8): 84-92.
王凯丰，力刚，张诚，等. 城市洪涝韧性的研究热
点及趋势分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱，2024，34（4）：
66-71.
Wang Kaifeng, Li Gang, Zhang Cheng, et al.
Research hotspots and trend analysis of urban
flood resilience[J]. China Flood & Drought
Management, 2024, 34(4): 66-71.
自然资源部. 自然资源部办公厅关于印发《平急
功能复合的韧性城市规划与土地政策指引》的
通知[EB/OL]. （2024-04-28）[2026-07-20]. https://
gi.mnr.gov.cn/202405/t20240513_2845021.html.
Ministry of Natural Resources. Notice of the
General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources
on the Guide for Resilient Urban Planning
and Land Policies with Combined Routine and
Emergency Functions[EB/OL]. (2024-04-28)
[2026-07-20]. https://gi.mnr.gov.cn/202405/
t20240513_2845021.html.
陈崇贤，刘京一. 气候变化影响下国外沿海城市
应对海平面上升的景观策略与启示[J]. 风景园
林，2020，27（12）：32-37.
Chen Chongxian, Liu Jingyi. Landscape strategies
and enlightenment of foreign coastal cities to
cope with sea level rise under impact of climate
change[J]. Landscape Architecture, 2020, 27(12):
32-37.
IPCC CZMS. Strategies for adaptation to sea level
rise[R]. The Hague: Ministry of Transport, Public
Works and Water Management, 1990.
Wang G, Goldfeld Y, Drimer N. Expanding
coastal cities—Proof of feasibility for modular
floating structures (MFS)[J]. Journal of Cleaner
Production, 2019, 222: 520-538.
王莺，张强，王劲松，等. 21世纪以来干旱研究的
若干新进展与展望[J]. 干旱气象，2022，40（4）：
549-566.
Wang Ying, Zhang Qiang, Wang Jinsong, et al. New
progress and prospect of drought research since the
21st century[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022,
40(4): 549-566.
北京市规划和自然资源委员会. 北京市韧性
城市空间专项规划（2022年—2035年）[EB/
OL]. （2024-03-22）[2026-07-20]. https://www.
beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202403/
t20240325_3599383.html.
Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and
Natural Resources. Beijing resilient city spatial
special plan (2022-2035)[EB/OL]. (2024-03-22)
[2026-07-20]. https://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/
zhengcefagui/202403/t20240325_3599383.html.
陈星，姜紫莹，方澜. 超大城市高温热浪脆弱性
评价及应对策略——以上海市为例[J]. 上海城
市规划，2025（6）：124-131.
Chen Xing, Jiang Ziying, Fang Lan. Vulnerability
assessment and response strategies of megacities to
heatwaves: a case study of Shanghai[J]. Shanghai
Urban Planning Review, 2025(6): 124-131.
