基于夜间灯光数据的苏南小城镇碳排放时空演变 及低碳优化策略研究
Spatio-temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Low-Carbon Optimization Strategies of Small Towns in Southern Jiangsu Based on Nighttime Light Data
黄 静
马鞍山跃马交通投资有限公司 助理工程师
徐 曜（通信作者）
西南交通大学建筑学院 博士研究生，xuyao@my.swjtu.edu.cn
喻冰洁
西南交通大学建筑学院 助理研究员
盛 杰
西南交通大学建筑学院 博士研究生
摘要: 随着全球气候变化问题日益严峻，减少碳排放成为首要任务。小城镇作为人类生活、工作、休憩的空间载体，也是碳排 放的主要载体，但目前对于精细化的乡镇甚至栅格尺度的研究尚未充分展开。以苏南地区151个小城镇为研究对象，整 合CEADs数据库与VIIRS夜间灯光数据构建2012—2021年碳排放栅格数据集，运用空间自相关分析等方法，系统揭示了 碳排放的时空演变特征，并提出分类优化策略。结果表明：（1）碳排放总量呈阶段性增长，空间分布呈现“南高北低、 东高西低”格局，高值区向经济活跃带扩张；（2）碳排放存在显著空间集聚性，H—H型热点区集中于沿太湖经济带， L—L型冷点区向西部收缩；（3）针对4类小城镇（协调、绿色、重点、创新区），提出差异化优化路径。为精细化尺度碳排 放治理提供了创新方法论，对长江三角洲城镇群实现“双碳”目标具有实践指导意义。
Abstract: With the increasingly serious problem of global climate change, reducing carbon emissions has become a top priority. Small towns are also the major carriers of carbon emissions as the spatial carriers of human life, work, and rest, but research on refined townships or even raster scales has not yet been thoroughly carried out. The study takes 151 small towns in Southern Jiangsu as the research object, integrates the CEADs database and VIIRS nighttime light data to construct a carbon emission raster dataset from 2012 to 2021, and applies spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to systematically reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions, and proposes classification optimization strategies. The results show that: (1) the total amount of carbon emissions shows phased growth, and the spatial distribution shows a pattern of “high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west,” with the high-value area expanding to the economically active zone; (2) the global Moran’s I index indicates that there is significant spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions, with H-H hotspots concentrated along the Taihu Lake Economic Zone and L-L coldspots contracting to the west; (3) differentiated optimization paths are proposed for the four types of small towns (coordinated/green/focused/innovation zones). This study provides methodological innovations for managing carbon emissions on a refined scale, which is of practical guidance for realizing the “dual-carbon” goal in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta.
关键词：苏南地区；小城镇；碳排放；时空演变
Keyword: Southern Jiangsu; small towns; carbon emission; spatiotemporal evolution
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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