基于公共因子的慢行环境改善效果预评估方法*——以常州南部新城为例

Evaluation Methods of Non-motorized Transportation Environment Improvement Based on Public Factors:A Case Study of Changzhou South New Town

王树盛
江苏省城市规划设计研究院 主任工程师，高级工程师，博士

黄富民
江苏省城市规划设计研究院 总工程师，教授级高级工程师，硕士

摘要: 论述了慢行环境对慢行出行行为的影响，提出了通过建立离散选择模型来针对慢行环境的改善效果进行预评估的总体思路。首先提出了慢行路径环境信息的采集和处理方法，通过公共因子分析方法将慢行路径中众多可实际测量的慢行环境影响因素提炼合成为少量的基于路径环境的慢行公共因子，藉此建立2项Logit模型，并通过解析慢行公共因子与各慢行环境因素之间的关系，对慢行环境改善带来的经济、社会、环境效益进行预评估，为慢行环境改善措施的制定提供依据。最后以常州市南部新城为例，提出的方法进行了应用说明。

Abstract: Non-motorized Transportation is one of most important parts of urban transportation system. The impact on the non-motorized travel behavior from the travel environment has been analyzed and a general framework about how to evaluate the effect of the nonmotorized transportation environment has been presented. And then the methods are given about how to collect the non-motorized path information and how to obtain the public factors. Two Logit models including the public factors have been established to evaluate the effect of the non-motorized transportation environment improvement. At last, the methods above have been illustrated in the case study of Changzhou city.

关键词：慢行交通、公共因子、Logit模型

Keyword: Non-motorized transportation, Public factors, Logit model

中图分类号：TU981

文献标识码: A

资金资助

“十二五”农村领域国家科技计划课题，基于江苏省的村镇区域集约发展优化技术及标准研究资助（2012BAJ22B03-02）

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