上海城市安全与综合防灾系统研究
Study on the Urban Safety and Comprehensive Disaster Prevention in Shanghai
刘敏
华东师范大学地理科学学院 教授，博士生导师
陈睿山
华东师范大学地理科学学院 教授
张昆
华东师范大学地理科学学院 副教授
唐曦
华东师范大学地理科学学院 副教授
余柏蒗
华东师范大学地理科学学院 教授，博士生导师
权瑞松
华东政法大学公共管理学院 博士，讲师
殷杰
华东师范大学地理科学学院 副教授
王军
华东师范大学地理科学学院 教授，博士生导师
摘要: 对上海突发公共事件进行梳理，提出影响上海的4大类50种突发公共事件分类体系。在此基础上，运用情景分析法、地理信息系统（GIS）技术和专业模型，对上海暴雨内涝、台风风暴潮、洪水等自然灾害，海平面上升等极端气候事件存在风险进行研究，并着重对上海应对突发公共事件的空间对策、实施路径、综合应急响应机制提出了建议，构建“三个重要目标，三个战略阶段”，涵盖“一案三制一规划”的城市安全总体战略框架布局。
Abstract: This paper presents the classification system of four categories of 50 kinds of public emergencies in Shanghai. On this basis, using scenario analysis, geographic information system (GIS) technology and professional models, these risks of rainstorm waterlogging, typhoon storm surge, floods and sea level rise in Shanghai were clarified. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for emphasizing on the space countermeasure, implementing path and comprehensive emergency response mechanism of public emergency in Shanghai. This paper has also built overall strategic framework of city safety, including ‘three important goals, three strategic stages’, and covering‘one case, three systems and one plan’.
关键词：城市安全、风险评估、空间应对、战略框架
Keyword: Urban safety, Risk assessment, Space solutions, Strategic framework
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
资金资助
*上海市新一轮城市总体规划战略研究专题报告部分成果。
[1] 国务院. 国家突发公共事件总体应急预案[R].2015.
The State Council of the People's Republic of China.General contingency plan for national public emergency[R]. 2015.
[2] 刘敏，权瑞松，许世远. 城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估[M]. 北京：科学出版社，2012.
LIU Min, QUAN Ruisong, XU Shiyuan. Urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment [M].Beijing: Science Press, 2012.
[3] 许世远等. 上海城市自然地理图集[M]. 上海：中华地图学社，2004.
XU Shiyuan, et al. Shanghai physical geography atlas[M]. Shanghai: Chinese Map Society, 2004.
[4]IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, in contribution of Working Group I to the fifth Assessment Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013: 1535.
[5] 徐健. 海平面上升对上海的影响及对策措施研究[J]. 中国水运，2012（11）：28-29.
XU Jian. Impact and the countermeasures study of sea level rise on Shanghai[J]. China Water Transport, 2012(11): 28-29.
[6] Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). Mike 21 ＆ Mike 3 Flow Model FM hydrodynamic and transport module scientific documentation[J]. Denmark: DHI Water ＆Environment, 2013.
[7] 王军，叶明武，李响，等. 城市自然灾害风险评估与应急响应方法研究[M].北京：科学出版社，2013.
WANG Jun, YE Mingwu, LI Xiang, et al. Study on urban natural disaster risk assessment and emergency response methods[M], Beijing：Science Press, 2013.
[8] 宋城城，李梦雅，王军，等. 基于复合情景的上海台风风暴潮灾害危险性模拟及其空间应对[J]. 地理科学进展，2014，33（12）：1692-1703.
SONG Chengcheng, LI Mengya, WANG Jun, et al. Simulation of typhoon storm disaster in Shanghai and its spatial response based on scenario analysis[J]. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(12):1692-1703.
[9] 中华人民共和国交通运输部. 海港水文规范[R].2013.
The Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China. Code of hydrology for sea harbor[R].2013.
[10] 尹占娥，许世远. 城市自然灾害风险评估研究[M].北京：科学出版社，2012.
YIN Zhan'e, XU Shiyuan. Urban natural disaster risk assessment study[M].Beijing: Science Press,2012.
[11] 国务院. 国家自然灾害救助应急预案[R]. 2011.
The State Council of the People's Republic of China. Contingency plan for national natural disaster relief[R]. 2011.
[12] 国务院. 中华人民共和国减灾规划（1998—2010）[R]. 1998.
The State Council of the People's Republic of China. Disaster reduction plan (1998-2010)[R].1998.
[13] 国务院. 国家综合减灾“十一五”规划[R]. 2007.
The State Council of the People's Republic of China. The 11th Five-Year Plan on national comprehensive disaster reduction[R]. 2007.
[14]国务院. 国家综合防灾减灾“十二五”规划[R].2011.
The State Council of the People's Republic of China. The 12th Five-Year Plan on national comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction[R]. 2011.
