基于时间序列的汽车分时租赁站点发展模式分类*
Classification on Carsharing Station's Development Patterns Based on Time Series Data
涂颖菲
上海国际汽车城（集团）有限公司 研究员，博士
陈小鸿
同济大学交通运输工程学院 教授，博士生导师
李坤耘
同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室 硕士研究生
摘要: 针对不同区位与建成环境开展汽车分时租赁站点发展模式分析，能够支撑站点布局优化，促进城市土地与空间资源的合
理规划使用。利用站点的时间序列数据，结合确定性因素分解、平稳性检验、Mann-Kendall检验以及截面运营评价，判断站
点整体发展模式，将其分为A、B、C、D、E共5类。分析上海市分时租赁系统EVCARD站点的发展模式，研究发现站点运
营情况总体呈增长趋势，70%的站点发展运营较好。从站点区位来看，超过70%的外围站点及约80%的郊区站点运营趋势
为增长型或稳定型，但内环内站点的长期运营状况较差。从建成环境来看，约80%的公园绿地和交通枢纽区域站点表现为
增长或稳定型发展，接近50%的行政办公区域站点长期发展较差。
Abstract: The analysis of car-sharing stations development patterns under different built environment are important for the enterprises and to
the society. The former can support the comprehensive evaluation on car-sharing stations, meanwhile, the latter can contribute to
the optimization of stations’ layout and planning of land resources. Based on the time series data of all stations, this paper proposes
a method for classification on car-sharing station’s development patterns, using the deterministic factor decomposition, stationarity
test and Mann-Kendall test. This paper further analyzes the development patterns of car-sharing system EVCARD stations in
Shanghai. Results show that there is a generally growing trend, with 70% of the stations operating well. From the perspective of
station’s location, more than 70% of the peripheral stations and about 80% of the suburban stations show the growing or stable
developing trend, and the developing trends of the inner-ring stations are poor. From the perspective of built environment, about 80%
stations locating in the park or transportation area are developing stably or preferably, while nearly 50% stations locating near the
administrative area are developing poorly.
关键词：时间序列、分时租赁、站点、发展模式、建成环境
Keyword: Time series，Car-sharing | Station，Development patterns，Built environment
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
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