2004—2019年上海新增工业用地时空分布与成因分析
The Spatio-temporal Distribution and Formation Mechanism of Newly Increased Industrial Land in Shanghai in 2004-2019
罗智丰
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 博士研究生 上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司 主任规划师
宋小冬（通信作者）
同济大学高密度人居环境生态和节能教育部 重点实验室 教授
摘要: 基于2004—2019年上海工业用地出让数据，利用探索性空间统计方法，描述上海新增工业用地的时空分布，进一步分析成因。研究显示：①上海新增工业用地总量下降明显，空间集聚却不明显；②新增工业用地价格上升速度快于规模下降速度，政策调控作用显著；③新增工业用地集聚的空间尺度在增加，近邻集聚度在降低，2015—2019年近邻集聚已不明显；④出让地块平均规模在增加，大小差异在扩大；⑤新增工业用地分布重心持续向东南方向偏移，远离中心城区。新增工业用地时空分布发生变化的主要原因包括：严控供地总量、土地经济、需求侧被动响应、发展阶段差异、行政分隔和政绩考核制度、上级政府政策等。在此基础上，从工业区的布局、产业类型、空间规划、政绩考核等方面对上海下一步的工业发展提出6项建议。
Abstract: Based on Shanghai's industrial land sale data from 2004 to 2019, adapting exploratory spatial statistical methods, the essay aims to characterize the spatial distribution and analyze the causes of Shanghai's newly-increased industrial land. The results show that: ① The total amount of newly-increased industrial land in Shanghai decreased significantly, but the spatial agglomeration was not obvious. ② The price of newly-increased industrial land increased faster than the rate of scale decline, and the policy regulation played a big role. ③ The agglomeration space is increasing while the degree is decreasing and no longer evident from 2015 to 2019. ④ The average size of the land for sale is increasing while the size difference is expanding. ⑤ The distribution center of the newly-increased industrial land continues to shift to the southeast, away from the downtown area. The change of spatial distribution is mainly caused by strict control of total land supply, land economy, the passive response on the demand side, development stage differences, administrative separation and performance appraisal system, and superior government policies. These lead to six recommendations from industrial land layout, industrial type, space planning, and performance appraisal for the next phase of Shanghai's industrial development.
关键词：新增工业用地；产业集聚；空间自相关；标准差椭圆；政策建议
Keyword: newly-increased industrial land; industrial agglomeration; spatial autocorrelation; the standard deviational ellipse; policy recommendations
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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