青年定居地选择视角下的城市竞争力评价方法* ——以上海市为例
A Method for Evaluating Urban Competitiveness from the Perspective of Young People's Settlement Choices: A Case Study of Shanghai
朱 玮
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室 副教授，博士生导师 上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司 数字规划技术研究中心 主任研究员
王 德
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 教授，博士生导师
殷振轩
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 博士研究生
陈 薪
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
王嘉欣
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
摘要: 城市竞争力建设的核心是吸引人，尤其是青年定居。现有评估竞争力的研究主要关注客观指标，而忽视了人的主观认知和偏好。提出基于主观视角的城市竞争力评价方法，基于个人对现居地和备选地在7类24个不同要素上的比较，首先通过线性差分模型估计各城市各竞争力要素水平，再用逻辑斯蒂模型解释各要素对青年人定居地选择的影响，最后模拟不同情境下的城市竞争力变化。以上海为例的实证研究发现：上海与其他一线城市竞争相对激烈，而二线城市也在全面逼近；个人发展是青年关心的首要因素，资源条件的综合影响力最大；竞争力提升方向包括降低居住成本、提升个人发展空间和改善城市环境等。
Abstract: Urban competitiveness mostly depends on the ability to attract people, especially young people, to settle down. Existing studies assessing urban competitiveness have mainly focused on objective indexes and ignored people's subjective thoughts. This paper proposes a method for evaluating urban competitiveness from the subjective perspectives of young people. The method uses data of young people's comparisons between two cities (current and alternative) on 24 competitiveness factors in 7 categories. It firstly estimates people's evaluations on each city's competitiveness factors through a linear difference model. Then, a logistic model is constructed to explain how the competitiveness factors influence young people's settlement choices between the two cities. Finally, it estimates the settlement selection probabilities in hypothetical situations. Taking Shanghai as an example to apply the method, it is found that: i) The competition between Shanghai and other first-tier cities is relatively fierce, while the second-tier cities are approaching in an all-round way; ii) In the choice of settlement, personal development is the primary concern of young people, and resource conditions have the greatest overall influence on the decision-making; iii) The future direction of promoting Shanghai's competitiveness is to reduce the housing cost, to enhance personal development conditions, and to improve the urban environment.
关键词：城市竞争力；青年人；定居地选择；上海
Keyword: urban competitiveness; young people; settlement choice; Shanghai
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
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