基于趋势模拟与用地评价的城镇增长边界划定方法研究——以江阴市为例
A Method Study of the Demarcation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on the Trend Simulation and Land Suitability Assessment: A Case Study of Jiangyin
张 飞
江苏省规划设计集团 江苏省城镇与乡村规划设计院有限公司 高级城乡规划师，硕士
闾 海
江苏省规划设计集团 江苏省城镇与乡村规划设计院有限公司 副总经理，正高级城乡规划师，硕士
李瑞勤
江苏省规划设计集团 江苏省城镇与乡村规划设计院有限公司 高级城乡规划师，硕士
摘要: 1981—2019年，中国城市建成区面积增长了近9倍，城镇化率由20.16%提升到60.60%。快速城镇化为我国社会经济、城市建设带来巨大利好的同时，也出现诸如城市无序扩张、用地粗放利用、各类规划之间冲突矛盾等问题。因此， 城市需要在快速增长的过程中引导其向“适宜”的地区有序开发。基于对国内外城市增长边界理论与实践的研究，提出城市增长边界划定技术方法，并以江阴市为例，在“底线管控”“多规融合”的理念指导下，构建城镇空间拓展趋势模拟和建设用地适宜性评价模型，匡算城镇建设规模，划定江阴市域刚性和弹性（2030年）城镇增长边界，提出管控策略，引导江阴市城镇有序开发建设。
Abstract: From 1981 to 2019, the urban built-up area increased by nearly nine times, and the urbanization increased from 20.16% to 60.60% in China. The rapid development of urban brought great benefits to economic development and urban construction. Meanwhile, it also brought some problems, such as disorderly urban expansion, extensive use of land, and conflicts between various types of planning. Therefore, our cities need boundaries to lead the development to the 'appropriate' areas. We provide the method containing 'protecting the bottom line, calculating the scale, clearing direction of development, verifying the boundaries, and taking the measures' to demarcate the urban growth boundary. Taking Jiangyin as an example, we build the model of the urban spatial trend simulation and the land suitability evaluation, calculate the scale of each town, and demarcate the urban growth boundary of Jiangyin with rigidity and elasticity.
关键词：城镇增长边界；城镇增长趋势模拟；城镇建设用地评价；江阴市
Keyword: urban growth boundary; urban growth trend simulation; land suitability assessment; Jiangyin
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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