流域视角下CA模型在国土空间规划中的应用* ——以河南省黄河流域国土空间规划为例
Application of the Cellular Automata Model in the Territory Spatial Planning on the Perspective of Basin: A Case Study of Henan Province Yellow River Basin Territory Spatial Planning
林文棋
清华大学建筑学院 副教授，博士 北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 总规划师，技术创新中心执行主任
李绍辉
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 算法工程师，硕士
陈会宴
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 算法工程师，硕士
周亦恒
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 规划师，硕士
吴纳维
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 规划师，博士
刘 丽
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 规划师
摘要: 基于省、市级国土空间规划编制指南，以河南省黄河流域国土空间规划为例，进行流域尺度的城镇空间扩展模拟，并为城镇开发边界划示、差异化制定城镇发展策略及城镇“双宜区”判定提供科学支撑。采用实证分析法、元胞自动机（CA）与Logistic回归模型算法进行分析，结果表明：（1）CA与Logistic回归模型算法结合进行城镇空间扩展多情景模拟，为城镇开发边界划定提供科学支撑；（2）根据对比分析结果进行不同发展动力与限制要素驱动下的区县扩展特征与规律研究，为差异化制定流域发展对策提供科学支撑；（3）基于城镇开发边界划示方案,进行“双评价”结果的农业生产与城镇建设双适宜区判定、基本农田调整建议，为科学统筹生态、农业与城镇空间提供支撑。结论显示，基于机器学习和CA模拟技术构建的多情景模型可为次区域向市县城镇建设用地指标传导和城镇开发边界划示提供科学支撑，有效指导流域尺度的国土空间规划的编制。
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is based on the provincial and municipal territory spatial planning guidelines, taking the territory spatial planning of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province as an example, to study how to use the cellular automata (CA) simulation model to simulate the urban spatial expansion at the basin scale. It uses the simulation results to provide scientific support for urban development boundary delineation, differentiated formulation of urban development strategies, and identification of urban "dual suitable areas". The research methods include empirical analysis, the cellular automaton model, and the logistic regression model algorithm. (1) This paper uses the combination of the cellular automata (CA) and the logistic regression model algorithm to perform multi-scenario simulation of urban spatial expansion, providing scientific support for the delimitation of urban development. (2) Based on the results of comparative analysis, this paper researches the expansion characteristics and laws of districts and counties driven by different development motives and restrictive factors, providing scientific support for the differentiated formulation of development strategies for the basin. (3) Based on the urban development boundary delineation plan, this paper carries out the "double-evaluation" result to determine the "dual suitable areas" for agricultural production and urban construction and puts forward suggestions for basic farmland adjustment, providing support for the scientific overall planning of ecology, agriculture, and urban space. In conclusion, the multi-scenario model based on machine learning and the cellular automata (CA) simulation model can provide scientific support for the transmission of urban construction land indicators and the delineation of urban development boundaries. It will effectively guide the compilation of territory spatial planning at the basin scale.
关键词：流域；城镇建设用地；多情景模拟；元胞自动机（CA）
Keyword: basin; urban construction land; multi-scenario simulation; cellular automata
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
国家重点研发计划（National Key R&D Program of China） “县域村镇空间发展智能化管控与功能提升规划技术研发” 2018YFD1100800
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