武汉远城区吸引力的要素识别和规划优化* ——以东西湖区为例
The Feature Extraction for Attractiveness and the Optimization of Planning in a Suburban District: A Case Study of the Dongxihu District in Wuhan
潘起胜
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 讲座教授，博士生导师 美国德州大学阿灵顿分校 公共政策与城市规划学系 教授
赵 爽
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究
郑振华
武汉市土地利用和城市空间规划研究中心 主任
刘学军（通信作者）
武汉大学城市设计学院 副教授，硕士生导师
焦洪赞
武汉大学城市设计学院 副教授，硕士生导师
摘要: 疏解中心城区人口，改善远城区的居住和就业条件，促进其人口和产业的集聚发展，是国内外城市共同面对的课题。既有研究表明，合理规划远城区的公共服务设施并优化其产业空间布局，是引导中心城区人口向远城区疏解的着力点。以武汉东西湖区为研究对象，首先开展文献收集、问卷调查、实地踏勘和数据收集；其次通过综合分析，找出与城市规划有关的吸引力的规律，建立武汉远城区人口吸引力的评价指标体系；再者利用多元回归模型，识别显著要素，确定模型和要素的空间效应；最后通过对比要素的空间效应和原有规划方案，提出规划建议，改进和完善规划的评估和优化工作。
Abstract: Relocating population from the central city, promoting the development of industry, facilitating the agglomeration of economics, and increasing the concentration of population in suburban districts are important topics for cities all around the world. The existing literature shows that the rational planning and proper layout of urban public service facilities are the key points for planning and guiding the spatial allocation of urban population. This paper intends to identify and extract the key elements for attracting population and optimizing control regulations in a suburban district. It employs the Dongxihu District in Wuhan as an empirical case. Traditional OLS and step-wise regression models are utilized to examine the relationship between population increase and the key elements and sort out the major contributors. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is employed to find out their spatial effects. The findings have been used to guide the optimization of control regulations in suburban districts.
关键词：远城区；新城区；吸引力；指标；要素；规划优化
Keyword: suburban districts; new districts; attractiveness; index; elements; planning optimization
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
武汉市土地利用和城市空间规划研究中心 “提高武汉市东西湖区吸引力研究：从改善公共服务设施与产业布局的评价入手” 2019-WX-006
陆韬，宁越敏. 国际大都市新城发展的经验及启示[J]. 中国城市研究，2013，8（1）：31-41.
LU Tao, NING Yuemin. The experience and inspiration of the new towns development in international metropolis[J]. Journal of China Urban Studies, 2013, 8(1): 31-41.
TODD R H. A city index: measurement of a city's attractiveness[R]. 1977.
Institute for Urban Strategies. Global Power City Index 2018[R]. 2018.
A.T. Kearney. Learning from the East: insights from China's urban success[R]. 2018.
汤海孺，陈伟，陈添明. 控制性详细规划实施评估报告编制方法初探[J]. 城市规划，2015，39（z1）：86-90.
TANG Hairu, CHEN Wei, CHEN Tianming. A study on the compilation methods for regulatory planning implementation evaluation report[J]. City Planning Review, 2015, 39(z1): 86-90.
PORTER M. Clusters and the new economics of competition[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1998, 76(6): 77-90.
高子平. 基于层次分析法的上海市人才吸引力研究[J]. 华东经济管理，2012，26（2）：5-9.
GAO Ziping. Analysis of Shanghai's talents attractiveness based on AHP[J]. East China Economic Management, 2012, 26(2): 5-9.
王昊阳，王德，刘珺. 基于居住偏好的上海市新城人口吸引策略研究[J]. 城市规划学刊，2017（4）：97-103.
WANG Haoyang, WANG De, LIU Jun. Population attraction strategy of new towns in Shanghai based on residential preference behaviors[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2017(4): 97-103.
BOYER R, SAVAGEAU D. Places rated almanac: your guide to finding the best places to live in America[M]. Chicago: Rand McNally & Company, 1985.
范柏乃. 我国城市居民生活质量评价体系的构建与实际测度[J]. 浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版），2006（4）：122-131.
FAN Bonai. The evaluation on quality of citizen's living of China[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 2006(4): 122-131.
程丽辉，王兴中. 中国区域中心城市及其卫星城镇生活空间质量评价——以西安卫星城镇评价为例[J]. 地理科学进展，2003（3）：316-325.
CHENG Lihui, WANG Xingzhong. The quality evaluation of living space of the central city and its satellite towns in China: a case study of the satellite towns of Xi'an[J]. Progress in Geography, 2003(3): 316-325.
王伟武. 杭州城市生活质量的定量评价[J]. 地理学报，2005（1）：151-157.
WANG Weiwu. A quantitative assessment on the quality of life in Hangzhou based on Landsat/TM and socioeconomic data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005(1): 151-157.
张文忠，刘旺，孟斌. 北京市区居住环境的区位优势度分析[J]. 地理学报，2005（1）：115-121.
ZHANG Wenzhong, LIU Wang, MENG Bin. On location advantage value of residential environment (LAVRE) in the urban and suburban areas of Beijing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005(1): 115-121.
王坤鹏. 城市人居环境宜居度评价——来自我国四大直辖市的对比与分析[J]. 经济地理，2010，30（12）：1992-1997.
WANG Kunpeng. Evaluation of urban human settlements livability: a case of comparison and analysis on China's four municipalities[J]. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(12): 1992-1997.
湛东升，张文忠，余建辉，等. 基于地理探测器的北京市居民宜居满意度影响机理[J]. 地理科学进展，2015，34（8）：966-975.
ZHAN Dongsheng, ZAHNG Wenzhong, YU Jianhui, et al. Analysis of influencing mechanism of residents' livability satisfaction in Beijing using geographical detector[J]. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(8): 966-975.
孙晖，梁江. 控制性详细规划应当控制什么——美国地方规划法规的启示[J]. 城市规划，2000（5）：19-21.
SUN Hui, LIANG Jiang. The objects to be controlled in the regulatory detailed planning: the implication from the local planning legislation of America[J]. City Planning Review, 2000(5): 19-21.
韩高峰，王涛，谭纵波. 新时期控制性详细规划动态评估与维护策略[J]. 规划师，2013，29（10）：73-78.HAN Gaofeng, WANG Tao, TAN Zongbo. Regulatory planning dynamic evaluation and maintenance in the new era[J]. Planners, 2013, 29(10): 73-78.
章征涛，宋彦. 美国区划演变经验及对我国控制性详细规划的启示[J]. 城市发展研究，2014，21（9）：39-46.
ZHANG Zhengtao, SONG Yan. Lessons learnt from the U.S. zoning evolution experiences for regulatory planning[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2014, 21(9): 39-46.
彭文高，任庆昌. 不同类型地区控制指标体系确定的探讨[J]. 城市规划，2008（7）：52-55.
PENG Wengao, REN Qingchang. On making different regulatory planning indexes for different types of area[J]. City Planning Review, 2008(7): 52-55.
桂明，沈炜彬，冯一军. 控规层面市政规划实施评估研究与实践——以杭州市钱江新城单元实践为例[J]. 城市规划，2017，41（2）：39-44.
GUI Ming, SHEN Weibin, FENG Yijun. Study and practice of implementation evaluation on municipal infrastructure plan in regulatory plan: a case study of Hangzhou CBD[J]. City Planning Review, 2017, 41(2): 39-44.
孟江平，孙娟，姜秋全，等. 上海控规规划评估的要点及方法——以安亭国际汽车城核心区为例[J]. 城市规划学刊，2012（z1）：133-137.
MENG Jiangping, SUN Juan, JIANG Qiuquan, et al. The framework and methods of Shanghai regulatory plan evaluation: the case of the core area of Anting International Motor City[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2012(z1): 133-137.
TOBIN J. Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables[J]. Econometrica, 1958, 26(1): 24-36.
